The Gambler’s Fallacy

This is the tendency of one to think that future probabilities are altered by past events.  They are not.  When you flip a coin you will always have a 50/50 chance of getting heads (or tails).  It doesn’t matter if it landed on heads for the last 30 flips; the next one still only has a 50% chance of landing on tails.  You are not “due” a tails flip.

The same is true with a roulette wheel.  For any spin of the wheel the probability of landing on red is 47.37% even if the ball landed on black the previous four times. Again, you are not “due” a win, the probabilities have not changed.

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